Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Democrat Nightmare Scenario?

After a rally in El Paso last night, Hillary Clinton is visiting the Corpus Christi area today. You know things must be serious if a presidential candidate is visiting those two places. Heck, even normal people rarely go to those remote environs.

With Hillary so gracing my region (Who said I was normal?), I thought it might be a good time to examine the possible Nightmare Scenario for the Democrats. The scenario goes that Obama wins most of the primaries and more pledged delegates than Hillary, which seems likely now, but that the more establishment super-delegates give Hillary the nomination. This would warm my lib’rul bashing heart but would alienate Obama supporters and greatly harm Democrat chances in November. Here’s one article summarizing the current situation and the possible scenario.

In recent days, it’s been argued that the Nightmare Scenario has become less likely with Obama’s winning streak, that the super-delegates aren’t going to tank the party by swinging the nomination to Hillary. And if unless she finishes the primary season strong, I think that’s correct.

But if she wins, say, two out of the three of Texas, Ohio, and Pennsyvania, she at least won’t appear as weak or unpopular a candidate as she does today. She would then give those establishment-mined super-delegates inclined to vote for her a reason/excuse to do so even if Obama still has slightly more of the elected delegates. So the Nightmare Scenario could still happen.

I’m not expecting this to happen, mind you. But it’s more possible than Democrats wish. And, anyway, is this not fun to watch?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I listened to her El Paso speech. She doesn't understand Texas. No real Texan complains about the price of oil (except when it is too low!). Also, considering her amazing expertise in trading cattle futures, I'm thinking that she should lay off the "big hat -- no cattle" criticism of our President. Finally, she conveniently neglects to mention that her "public service" of 35 years ago in Texas was the failed campaign of George McGovern (a cut and run guy if there ever was one) who lost Texas even when it was full of Yellow Dog Democrats. We didn't like out-of-state hippies back then and, though they've now put on a pant-suit and make-up, we still don't like them now.

REC CHIP said...

Newbie,

Another part of the "nightmare" for the Dems is a credentials fight over the Florida and Michigan delegations. Mrs. Clinton won both of those "contests" but they give no delegates due to having been held prior to Feb 5 so the DNC stripped them of their delegates. What if the "margin" of victory or Mrs. Clinton is those delegates and they are disinfranchised by the DNC.