Friday, December 05, 2014

The Real Danger to Republicans

There’s been much wringing of hands among establishment Republicans that they must not go overboard in stopping Obama’s unconstitutional amnesty.  A government shutdown especially must be avoided.

And I concur that IF Obama can be stopped without a government shutdown, that is preferable.  But I doubt a shutdown would be such a political disaster for a number of reasons beyond the scope of this post.  A more grave danger to Republicans is being overlooked.

Most are underestimating the anger at Obama and at his unconstitutional tyrannical actions.  Look again at the November election results please.  And the Republican establishment does not get how fed up the conservative base of the party is with the wimpy enabling ways of Speaker Boehner et al.

So the real danger I see is that Congressional Republicans do little to stop Obama’s immigration action and yet again enable him.  Republican leaders are already indicating that is their direction.

If conservatives perceive the GOP House and Senate as wimpy on Obama, particularly in not stopping his royal immigration decree, and if the party then nominates an establishment centrist to be President in 2016, the GOP is done for in that election.  Even more conservatives will stay home than in 2012.  They have had enough with establishment Republicans already.

And – here is a really foolish bolder prediction – if it turns out to be Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton in 2016, there will be a strong 3rd Party or independent candidate for President. Bush vs. Clinton would open wide a political vacuum inviting another candidate.  Something a great many Americans can unite on from across the political spectrum is that they will not stomach another Bush vs. Clinton election.  If the establishment of both parties tries to feed us that, they will get vomit coming back at them.

I do think Hillary would be elected in such a scenario as Bill was in the Bush-Clinton-Perot race of 1992, but it will be with well under 45% of the vote.  Barely 40% is a strong possibility.  But the Democrat Party has already bought enough votes with your taxes that Hillary would prevail anyway.

You heard it here first.  You had better hit what passes for a tip jar around here hard if I’m right.

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