Jeb! . . . Hang it up.

Yesterday, I demonstrated that the GOP establishment has angered the Republican base to their own political hurt, heck, near destruction.  Now some more numbers on how Jeb Bush is politically dead in the water.

On a CNN Poll of registered voters (Yes, it’s CNN.  But it is of registered voters, not just adults.  And the poll actually has Bush doing better than some other polls.), Jeb Bush’s favorables are as follows:

Favorable Opinion    35%

Unfavorable Opinion 57%

And it is worse among independents:

Favorable Opinion     30%

Unfavorable Opinion  62%

Yes, it is not 2016 yet.  But is opinion really going to change that much on a long term politician named Bush?  He is too much a known quality – an establishment Republican . . . named Bush.

The irony of this is that for decades the Establishment Republicans have told the base that the only way to win is to nominate one of them.  But it is hard to escape that nominating yet another Establishment Republican would be the surest way to another defeat in 2016.  The Republican base, including me, is that fed up.

I am doubling down on the prediction I made late last year.  If the GOP Establishment manages to get Jeb! nominated and Hillary! is the Democrat nominee, the two hated candidates would create a political vacuum that begs for a strong Third Party run.  Put an “!” on that.

But I don’t think Jeb! gets nominated.  Money can’t buy everything.  And he is that weak.

Closer to Permanent Tyranny . . . and a Third Party

I have several observations about Boehner’s cave on funding DHS and Obama’s illegal Immigration Action.

First, let there be no doubt about it – Boehner and McConnell planned to cave on this all along.  They and their Chamber of Commerce masters want to import cheap labor as much as Obama wants to import Democrats.  And although the Failure Twins were put in their positions by voters wanting to stop Obama, they do not share that priority, not much anyway.  Ace has it right:

Each of Boehner's and McConnell's "defeats" are in fact planned in advance. They are not trying to advance the conservative agenda; they are attempting to con conservatives into believing they have attempted to implement conservative policy, when in fact they were delivering their political deliverables to their Donor Class paymasters all along.

Second, because of this cave, we are closer to a prolonged to permanent tyranny voted for by imported and bought Democrats.  The venerable Phyllis Schlafly is as right as always:

The Obama Democrats have an audacious scheme for winning future elections. They just plan to import 5 million non-citizens and credential them as voters who will, in gratitude, vote Democratic.

The way this devious formula works is stunningly simple. Just get the new Republican Congress (under Speaker John Boehner and Sen. Mitch McConnell) to pass a full-funding bill for Homeland Security without any exception for the funding of Obama's illegal executive amnesty, which will allow Obama to give work permits, Social Security numbers and driver's licenses to 5 million illegal aliens.

Once the 5 million so-called undocumented persons are given those valuable documents, there is no way to stop them from voting. That conclusion is drawn from the testimony of voting experts such as Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who told the U.S. House Oversight Committee on Feb. 12, "It's a guarantee it will happen."

Kobach's warning was reinforced by testimony before the same committee by Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted, who noted that the 5 million non-citizens would receive the "same documents that federal law requires the states to recognize as valid forms of identification for voter registration." And once an alien registers to vote, Kobach said, it is "virtually impossible" to remove him from the voter rolls.

And, as Schlafly goes on to say, the imported Democrats will get lots of welfare goodies, paid for by us sucker taxpayers, of course, to keep them voting Democrat.

Third, we are now that much closer to a strong third party in America.  The Republican base, including me, is fed up.  We voted strong in 2014 and gave a clear mandate to the new Republican Congress: S.T.O.P.  O.B.A.M.A.  Yet we get this?  We still get Republicans lying down and enabling Obama’s tyranny?

As I noted in December, the Republican establishment does not get the political danger.  They do not get the breadth of the anger.  But if they nominate a Jeb Bush after caving again and again to Obama, they will get it all right.  They will get a third party/independent run as has not been seen for decades. 

The Real Danger to Republicans

There’s been much wringing of hands among establishment Republicans that they must not go overboard in stopping Obama’s unconstitutional amnesty.  A government shutdown especially must be avoided.

And I concur that IF Obama can be stopped without a government shutdown, that is preferable.  But I doubt a shutdown would be such a political disaster for a number of reasons beyond the scope of this post.  A more grave danger to Republicans is being overlooked.

Most are underestimating the anger at Obama and at his unconstitutional tyrannical actions.  Look again at the November election results please.  And the Republican establishment does not get how fed up the conservative base of the party is with the wimpy enabling ways of Speaker Boehner et al.

So the real danger I see is that Congressional Republicans do little to stop Obama’s immigration action and yet again enable him.  Republican leaders are already indicating that is their direction.

If conservatives perceive the GOP House and Senate as wimpy on Obama, particularly in not stopping his royal immigration decree, and if the party then nominates an establishment centrist to be President in 2016, the GOP is done for in that election.  Even more conservatives will stay home than in 2012.  They have had enough with establishment Republicans already.

And – here is a really foolish bolder prediction – if it turns out to be Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton in 2016, there will be a strong 3^rd Party or independent candidate for President. Bush vs. Clinton would open wide a political vacuum inviting another candidate.  Something a great many Americans can unite on from across the political spectrum is that they will not stomach another Bush vs. Clinton election.  If the establishment of both parties tries to feed us that, they will get vomit coming back at them.

I do think Hillary would be elected in such a scenario as Bill was in the Bush-Clinton-Perot race of 1992, but it will be with well under 45% of the vote.  Barely 40% is a strong possibility.  But the Democrat Party has already bought enough votes with your taxes that Hillary would prevail anyway.

You heard it here first.  You had better hit what passes for a tip jar around here hard if I’m right.

Mrs. Rodgers’ Neighborhood

I somehow endured somewhat sober Obama’s State of the Union address.  So I was looking forward to some clarity and reality from the GOP.

What I got instead was a cloying talk delivered more like children’s programming than a rebuttal.  What I got was Mrs. Rodgers’ Neighborhood.

While the Republican establishment goes hard after the Tea Party, they play patty-cake with Obama, weakly opposing him and even wanting to help him import Democrats with immigration “reform.”

Sometimes I wonder if the GOP establishment wants the rise of a strong Third Party.  Driving out Constitutionalists while going soft on Obama is practically asking for it.

Ace Goes 3rd Party (and I might, too)

Ace of my favorite blog, The Ace of Spades (Language warning always), yesterday announced that he’s done with the GOP:

. . . There are only so many times one can say "I'm quitting this party and will henceforth only support third party candidates."

Well, I have said it. Many of us have. We mean it. And it's over.

Go ahead and do what you like, GOP. The divorce is final.

Republican No More; done with the party http://t.co/qMnXnCMNb3
— DepressiveBlogger69 (@AceofSpadesHQ) August 8, 2013

My response:

@AceofSpadesHQ I'm not quite 3rd party yet. But I understand & am getting closer to that point. Intend to fight for @SenRandPaul 1st.
— WannabeAnglican (@WannabeAnglican) August 8, 2013

Going third party is not a decision to be taken lightly.  For it helps short-term the major party you most dislike.  (Do I really have to tell readers which one that is for me?)  Yes, lightning could strike as it looked like it might for a brief time in 1992 and as it did in New York State in 1970.  But my going third party would likely help the Democrats short term.

But there may come a point when supporting the Republican Party is unacceptable as well.  Ronald Reagan is the last Republican President who got this country going in a good direction.  Under the Bushes, we headed toward Gehenna, just a bit slower than a Democrat would have pushed us.  And we would surely head toward Gehenna under a Jeb Bush or a Chris Christie.  Yes, a Bush or Christie would slow the process.

But when the country is on the precipice of Hell, is going over it more slowly acceptable?  Thanks to past Republican enabling and to the Obama regime, we are on the edge of the Hell of a not-so-soft totalitarian tyranny.  Going over that edge slowly is not acceptable.  And a party who is not committed to pulling back and going in the other direction towards freedom, the rule of Constitutional law, and putting the Feds in their proper place is not a party I can support.

I do think the Republican Party can still be a constructive force for freedom as it was under Reagan.  Rand Paul gives me hope for that.

But if yet another establishment Republican gets the nomination for president, that may be my last straw.  At that point, I may go third party.

Some may say that is self-defeating.  Heck, I would have said that until recently.  But 2012 showed establishment Republicans do not have enough support to win long term anyway.  The low turn-out for Romney illustrated that too well.  And look at the comments to Ace’s announcement.  These are people who Republicans should have fighting for them.  Instead the Republican Party has already alienated them.

The U. S. is divided roughly between those who think government should provide stuff and those who think government should protect Constitutional freedom.  Those who think government should provide stuff are going to vote Democrat anyway.  If the Republican Party will not protect freedom, if it will not fight for those who want freedom, then it deserves the doom it will then surely get.

And Republican leaders again and again seem intent on alienating their freedom-minded base and on self-destruction.  Their push for amnesty for illegals is but one example.  Again and again, they enable Democrat big government tyranny instead of working to bring it down.

So the Republicans are heading to the Whig party anyway unless Constitutionalist conservatives are able soon to take it over.  And I am staying in the GOP for now to do my part.  And there are many good Republicans like Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Mike Lee.  And I will always support them in some fashion even if I go third party.

But one can only wait so long when one sees one’s country on the edge of the darkness of a permanent tyranny.   If the Republican Party continues to enable tyranny, then I cannot continue to support it.

I was going to write about what I think is a good model for a third party, but that will have to wait.  I’ve rambled enough already.