Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Jeb! . . . Hang it up.

Yesterday, I demonstrated that the GOP establishment has angered the Republican base to their own political hurt, heck, near destruction.  Now some more numbers on how Jeb Bush is politically dead in the water.

On a CNN Poll of registered voters (Yes, it’s CNN.  But it is of registered voters, not just adults.  And the poll actually has Bush doing better than some other polls.), Jeb Bush’s favorables are as follows:

Favorable Opinion    35%
Unfavorable Opinion 57%

And it is worse among independents:

Favorable Opinion     30%
Unfavorable Opinion  62%

Yes, it is not 2016 yet.  But is opinion really going to change that much on a long term politician named Bush?  He is too much a known quality – an establishment Republican . . . named Bush.

The irony of this is that for decades the Establishment Republicans have told the base that the only way to win is to nominate one of them.  But it is hard to escape that nominating yet another Establishment Republican would be the surest way to another defeat in 2016.  The Republican base, including me, is that fed up.

I am doubling down on the prediction I made late last year.  If the GOP Establishment manages to get Jeb! nominated and Hillary! is the Democrat nominee, the two hated candidates would create a political vacuum that begs for a strong Third Party run.  Put an “!” on that.

But I don’t think Jeb! gets nominated.  Money can’t buy everything.  And he is that weak.

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