Friday, August 29, 2014

Downfall XXIV: Obama’s Strong Approval/Disapproval Worse Than 2010

Yes, I haven’t been posting much in the Downfall series lately.  With Obama’s approval numbers stubbornly staying at or above 40% in spite of all his enormities, I’ve wondered what it could take for Obama and allied Democrats to be stripped of their power.  And at times I’ve also gotten rather discouraged about the persistence of his support.   Frankly, it still disturbs me.

But a poll I’ve read this morning reveals that if one goes deeper into the numbers, revulsion against Obama is at politically dangerous (for him) levels.  Gallup has looked at the percentages of those who “strongly approve” and “strongly disapprove” of Obama.  Go look at the numbers for yourself.

What I find most interesting is that while strong disapproval of Obama is only modestly higher than in 2010, strong approval is much lower, from 27% in May 2010 to only 17% now.  Therefore, strong disapproval of Obama roughly doubles strong approval.

Of course, the 2010 midterm elections were not good for Obama.  But these poll numbers are significantly worse now before this November’s midterms, particularly since those with a strong opinion about the sitting president are more likely to vote.

Now this does not guarantee a wave election turning Obama into a very lame duck (which I would consider a Downfall, by the way).  Congressional disapproval is remarkably high for one thing.  But on that, one must remember that said disapproval includes disapproval of the Democrat Senate and of Establishment Republican Speaker Boehner’s weak approach to confronting Obama.  Further, Republican Senate candidates appear to be politically stronger than in 2010.  And this time it is some of the Democrat Senate candidates who appear off the deep end, e. g. Amanda Curtis in Montana, or have foot-in-mouth disease, e. g. Bruce Braley in Iowa.

Still, leave it to establishment Republicans to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.  They have already so alienated the conservative Republican base that the base is not nearly as enthusiastic about voting as they could and should be.

But with 39% strongly disapproving of Obama and only 17% strongly approving, a wave election may come in November anyway.

Downfall is an ongoing series anticipating and tracking what I expect will be the the possible self-destruction of Obama.
The first post may be found here.  The series may be found here.

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