Election Day

Good morning?

Just to let you know my plans for Election Day, I doubt I will post much here, but I do expect to tweet a lot so . . . be sure to follow my twitter account.

I will say I’ve noticed an interesting tell already.  Frank Luntz was on CNBC this morning talking about polling.  And he seemed to be going to a funeral for the polling industry.  I think in his gut he thinks Trump will make the polls look foolish again and win.

Anyway, follow my twitter and have a good day . . . even if you are voting for Biden.

Shy Trump Voters?

(Disclaimer and TRIGGER WARNING: There is not much Anglicanism in this post but mainly political analysis that some may find unpleasant.  See my post yesterday for more explanation.)

Opinion polls have (Anglican Understatement Alert) limited usefulness this far out from an election. But a current odd phenomenon is that while most polls show Trump behind potential Democrat nominees, Democrats sure are not acting like it as one wag has noticed.

Gosh, it's almost as if they don't put any faith in all those media polls that show every other Dem candidate beating Trump in the general election https://t.co/3eLwZFRDqT

— John Hayward (@Doc_0) February 19, 2020

I suspect even Democrats know there is a Shy Trump Voter phenomenon about.  This, of course, is a variant of the Shy Tory phenomenon: some who vote Tory will not tell pollsters they are so doing.  Polls have thereby understated Tory support in past elections.  This has been seen in other elections as well.  When I lived in North Carolina, I noticed Jesse Helms always did better in elections than polls indicated.  

Shy right-of-center voters occur not because they are more prone to lying or dissembling or that they are ashamed of their political choices, as much as some Leftists may like so to think.  In a number of circumstances, letting it be known that one intends to vote for a right-of-center candidate invites social disapproval, even rejection, getting flack, or worse, including “cancelling”.  Yes, there are surely circumstances in which letting it be known that one intends to vote for a Lib/Left candidate invites grief, but that is far more often the case for conservative voters.  For many Leftists have a totalitarian streak that is less than tolerant toward political opponents.

In the U. S., openly supporting Trump can harm one’s career in a number of fields.  Wearing a red MAGA cap or just a red cap risks getting smacked upside the head and worse in several cities.  Besides that, some people would rather not be defamed as RACIST or the like. They might even want to keep friends and family on good terms; imagine that.  With not all Trump supporters desiring political combat on a toxic battlefield, it is to be expected that there is a significant Shy Trump Voter factor in this election and the accompanying polls.

Bret Stephens, no Trump supporter, is on to this:

…Perhaps the biggest whisper network of all: the one involving inner flashes of sympathy, frequently tipping into support at the ballot box, for President Trump.

Plenty of people are aware of this phenomenon: One recent academic study noted that so-called secret voters supported Trump over Hillary Clinton by a two-to-one (54 percent to 27 percent) margin in 2016. That statistic should be every bit as alarming to Democrats this time around, not least because it suggests that polls may be dramatically underweighting the scale of Trump's support.

Yet beyond the question of why people might want to conceal their voting preferences -- reputation management, social harmony, and so on -- it's worth asking whether the very fact that a vote for Trump was supposed to be shameful is also what made it so attractive. After all, forbidden fruit is appealing not because it is fruit, but because it is forbidden. For every voter who pulled the lever for Trump out of sympathy for his views, how many others did so out of disdain for the army of snickering moralists (at the time including me) telling them that a vote for Trump was unpardonable?

My hunch: probably enough to make the difference in the states that made the difference.

I would also guess that the number has only grown as the censorious left has become more aggressive and promiscuous in its condemnations.

Methinks his hunch and guess is correct.

By the way, I am posting this because I have long found the Shy Tory and related phenomenon interesting. I am not  posting this to encourage any complacency on the part of those inclined to vote for Trump.  Instead, as I’ve stated after the Impeachment Trial acquittal, it is important that we not merely defeat but punish Democrats in November because they have gone far beyond being mistaken on policy to opposing our Constitutional democracy itself.

Nor do I want Leftists to stop vilifying and harassing us evil racist Trump supporters.  Keep up the good “justice work”!  You are not reminding us of the importance of defeating you, not at all.

But then if by chance you are so reminding us, many of us will not let you know thanks to your righteous work.  The Shy Trump Voter is your creation, you know . . . or don’t know.

Do You Hear Us Now, GOP Establishment? UPDATED

There should not be any doubt about the Republican base’s frustration with and now rejection of the Republican Establishment and of their enabling of Obama and of illegal immigration.  But in case there is, the latest Fox Poll on the Republican race for POTUS should dispel it:

Trump         25%

Carson         12%

Cruz             10%

Bush               9%

I need not rehash all of Trump’s enormities and reasons not to support him.  (And I am not supporting him.)  But his numbers continue to be a big hairy finger raised at the GOP Establishment, particularly on immigration.  Really, GOP failure to do what the base elected Republicans to do – twice, in 2010 and 2014 – namely S.T.O.P. OBAMA, is the chief reason for Trump’s success so far.  But moving along . . .

In second is another non-politician, Ben Carson (who I think would make an excellent Veep candidate, by the way).  In third is the Republican senator who has most vociferously opposed the Republican leadership, even saying on the Senate floor that Majority Leader McConnell lied, Ted Cruz.  Anti-establishment heartthrobs all.

And in fourth with less than 10%?  The establishment fave, Jeb Bush . . . with less than 10%.

Do you hear us now, establishment RINOs?

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MORE: Maybe still the “GOP Establishment just doesn’t get it.”  But Elizabeth Price Foley does get it.  Like me, she is not a Trump supporter, but she understands well what is going on behind his support:

Oh, how the establishment loves to talk tough on immigration when it suits its purposes of ginning up conservatives on election day. But when a candidate comes along who actually wants to do something about the issue–and isn’t afraid to defy political correctness to do so–the GOP establishment suddenly cries foul, and brands him a fool, dictator, or police state zealot. The necessary implication is that the GOP establishment is all hat, no cattle on immigration.

No wonder increasing numbers of those who self-identify as Republican now openly abhor the party, and it totters on the brink of implosion.  But hey, I’m sure that’s all Donald Trump’s fault, right? Time for some GOP introspection.

Poll: Americans want MUCH tougher immigration policies.

It appears Obama’s Democrat importation programs immigration policies not only are a violation of the rule of law, they violate the Consent of the Governed as well.

A new Rasmussen Poll has 62% of Americans saying we are “not aggressive enough” in deporting illegals, 54% thinking babies born of illegals while in the U. S. should not automatically become U. S. citizens, and 51% saying that illegals with U. S. born children should not be exempt from deportation.  Further – and I especially agree with this – “83% said that anybody should be required to prove that they are ‘legally allowed’ to be in the country before receiving local, state or federal government services.”

And remember that a big issue in the 2014 mid-term elections was immigration.  That did not go well for Democrats and Obama as I recall.

Now, before you think I am just bashing Obama’s policies again . . . I am.  BUT the Republican establishment is also out of step with the American people on this issue.  They would rather obey their donors, who can never get enough cheap labor, than respect the Consent of the Governed and listen to the conservative Republican base.

The Republican Party had better listen on this and on any number of issues (including Freedom of Religion) lest they go the way of the Whigs.

Downfall XXV: WSJ/NBC Poll Has GOP Up 11 Points

A report that a WSJ/NBC poll had Republicans up 11 points “among likely voters on the question of which party should control Congress” seemed such an outlier I had to check it out for myself.  You see it is good for Republicans to be even or barely ahead on such “generic” congressional ballot questions.  They are hardly ever way ahead.  And WSJ/NBC polls are so skewed toward Democrats, they have become a bad joke to me.

But it is true.  Further, a clear majority of likely voters, 52%, want Republicans to control Congress according to this WSJ/NBC poll.

To get to the point, this points to a Republican “wave” election as big or bigger than 2010.  Seeing this and a number of individual Senate polls, I think the only way the Democrats even come close to holding the Senate is massive luck or massive fraud or both.  And that is possible but . . .  unless something awful happens for Republicans, Obama will become either a very lame duck or a dictator with little support in Congress in ten days.

But do NOT get complacent.   This election is too important for that.

Additional color on this poll may be found here.

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Downfall is an ongoing series anticipating and tracking the possible self-destruction of Obama.

The first post may be found here.  The series may be found here.

Downfall XXIV: Obama’s Strong Approval/Disapproval Worse Than 2010

Yes, I haven’t been posting much in the Downfall series lately.  With Obama’s approval numbers stubbornly staying at or above 40% in spite of all his enormities, I’ve wondered what it could take for Obama and allied Democrats to be stripped of their power.  And at times I’ve also gotten rather discouraged about the persistence of his support.   Frankly, it still disturbs me.

But a poll I’ve read this morning reveals that if one goes deeper into the numbers, revulsion against Obama is at politically dangerous (for him) levels.  Gallup has looked at the percentages of those who “strongly approve” and “strongly disapprove” of Obama.  Go look at the numbers for yourself.

What I find most interesting is that while strong disapproval of Obama is only modestly higher than in 2010, strong approval is much lower, from 27% in May 2010 to only 17% now.  Therefore, strong disapproval of Obama roughly doubles strong approval.

Of course, the 2010 midterm elections were not good for Obama.  But these poll numbers are significantly worse now before this November’s midterms, particularly since those with a strong opinion about the sitting president are more likely to vote.

Now this does not guarantee a wave election turning Obama into a very lame duck (which I would consider a Downfall, by the way).  Congressional disapproval is remarkably high for one thing.  But on that, one must remember that said disapproval includes disapproval of the Democrat Senate and of Establishment Republican Speaker Boehner’s weak approach to confronting Obama.  Further, Republican Senate candidates appear to be politically stronger than in 2010.  And this time it is some of the Democrat Senate candidates who appear off the deep end, e. g. Amanda Curtis in Montana, or have foot-in-mouth disease, e. g. Bruce Braley in Iowa.

Still, leave it to establishment Republicans to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.  They have already so alienated the conservative Republican base that the base is not nearly as enthusiastic about voting as they could and should be.

But with 39% strongly disapproving of Obama and only 17% strongly approving, a wave election may come in November anyway.

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Downfall is an ongoing series anticipating and tracking what I expect will be the the possible self-destruction of Obama.

The first post may be found here.  The series may be found here.

A Problem with Polls and a Call from Rasmussen

I’ve given certain pollsters a hard time.  But I have to admit their job is not easy.  One factor that makes it difficult is that so few cooperate with pollsters.  (And do read the interesting and detailed article at the link.)

Even though I am inclined to cooperate with what I consider legitimate pollsters, I have to admit I am one of those who have not been cooperating.

For the other day Rasmussen’s polling company called me.  I thought that was cool at first because his polls are among the few I respect.  So I eagerly cooperated even though it was a computer calling me and asking me questions.

That is I cooperated until it seemed question after question dealt in some fashion with my finances.  The computer did not ask me for bank account numbers or anything like that.  But I became suspicious that this was not Rasmussen at all but an attempt at fraud instead, and I hung up.

I was curious about the call and wanted to alert the Rasmussen people if it was fraud, so I called them.  They were very helpful, and we determined that the call was very likely indeed from Rasmussen.  And if their computer calls back again, I intend to complete the poll if I have the time.

But this episode nonetheless illustrates a problem with polls. Few answer them.  And the composition of those few who cooperate and those many who do not cooperate with polls surely affects the results.  I think it safe to say that conservatives are less likely to cooperate with a poll from NBC or CBS.  Someone, like me, who is not very trusting with financial information will be less likely to cooperate with a poll like the one from Rasmussen the other night.  And the very busy just do not have time to deal with polling calls.  Others are very prejudiced against computer calls (as I am). 

I could go on.  But surely all this self-selection has to affect polling results.

Anyway, nothing really scientific here.  I'll leave that to others.  But, as you can see, I am part of the problem with polls.

PPP = Pissant Push Polls

I’ve long known that Public Policy Polling (PPP) is Democrat tool putting out rigged polls.  But it did not occur to me until now that their polls are more than rigged.  They are push polls.

For those unfamiliar with the lingo, a push poll is one that has leading questions intended to shape opinion rather than measure it.  If you are ever polled with questions like “Did you know Candidate X wants to raise your taxes?”, that is a push poll likely designed both to influence your answer to their questions and your vote.  (And, yes, some Republicans do push polls, too.)

Well, recently PPP asked a question that has almost nothing to do with measuring opinion and everything to do with shaping it: "Who was more responsible for killing Osama bin Laden, Obama or Romney?"

That is a clown question.  One unfortunate citizen, who was asked that question, is convinced that it was asked to make conservatives look stupid.  And that is probably so given that it somehow found its way to Comedy Central.  But it is also a push poll question, serving to remind people that The Dear Leader is at least somewhat responsible for killing Osama.  A more professional question would be “Who do you trust more to deal with terrorism, Obama or Romney?” 

But PPP polls are clearly designed to come up with the correct conclusion and to push people to come up with the correct conclusion, not to reliably measure public opinion.

But, hey, I got an even bigger scoop.  I have managed to steal acquire a copy of a Pissant Push Poll poll.  And here are some of the questions:

Would you rather make history and vote to re-elect the first Black President of the United States or be a racist?

Do you support a women’s right to choose or would rather go back to the days of coat hangers and back alleys?

If you knew that Romney is a plutocrat who eats poor children for breakfast, would you vote for him?

Did you know that, under Romney, Bain Capital laid off workers and slew their families?

Aren’t you glad Obama saved GM?

You don’t want to be a racist, do you?

What is your party affiliation? Democratic, Third Party, Independent, or Racist?

Who do you support for President? Obama, Johnson, or the racist?

If you’ve come across other push poll questions from PPP, feel free to post them in the comments.