I am now prepared to predict the
2012 election almost infallibly.
Romney will win. And it will not be that close.
The polls I put the most weight
on, Rasmussen and Gallup, are breaking for Romney. Rasmussen daily tracking this morning (but taken before the
last debate) has Romney 50% to Obama 46%.
The latest Gallup polls also have Romney over 50%. Late deciders tend to break against the
incumbent, especially when the economy has been punk under the incumbent. That is what we are seeing now, and it's not over.
And, yes, I expect this trend
to be strong enough for Romney to carry Ohio. He has gained there, and polls have him roughly tied. Ohio will continue to move toward
In addition, the vote for
Romney (and against Obama) is more intense and angry/enthusiastic than for
Obama. One very helpful measure of
this is Rasmussen’s Presidential Approval Index. It persistently shows between 40% and 45% strongly disapprove
of Obama, much more (now more than 16 more) than the percentage who strongly
approve of Obama. So I expect the
turn out will be much more favorable to Republicans than 2008, though perhaps
not quite as favorable as 2010.
I just do not see a big event
coming to save Obama as much as a few may try to manufacture one. In fact,
Democrats are becoming so unhinged, they could easily say something to make
things worse. They are acting
pretty silly already with binders and such.
Now here’s where I am a real outlier
– the Republicans will take the 50 seats they need to control the Senate (with
Veep Ryan providing the tiebreaking vote if needed). This will be a ticked-off had-enough election like
1980. Yes, Obama is Carter Redux
in more ways than one. And in 1980, the big shocker wasn’t Reagan winning, but
the GOP gaining twelve Senate seats.
The GOP won’t gain twelve this time, but they will surprise again and
take the Senate if by the skin of their teeth.
Whether my prediction is
useless or useful, I’ll let you be the judge.
Labels: Mitt Romney, Obama, politics