Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Why I Predict Scotland Will Vote “No” and Stay in the UK

It took a while, but now even those on the West side of the pond are aware that Scotland votes tomorrow on whether to leave the United Kingdom and become independent.  Polls are close with some putting pro-independence “Yes” ahead and others putting Unionist “No” in front.

But I am confident “No” will win for three reasons.

1. The Queen pulled off a brilliant exercise of understatement on Sunday.  After church on Sunday, she walked over to well-wishers and told a member of the public, “I hope everybody thinks very carefully about the referendum this week.”

Now us Americans may say, “So what?”  But, although more assessable than American presidents, The Queen usually just smiles and waves at the public.  And she takes pains to remain non-political.  So her expressing her hope to the public is unusual, even though she did not explicitly back either side.

At the same time, it is well known that The Queen wants the United Kingdom to stay together.  And she is beloved, even in Scotland.  So her statement is a timely, winsome, and powerful reminder that she wants Scotland to stay.

By the way, this illustrates one advantage of The Queen remaining above the fray and non-political.  When the time comes that she feels she should make her wishes known, she can do so with great impact, even with her usual reserve.  And I do think her statement is a significant reason Scotland will stay in the UK.

2. The Scottish National Party has more than its share of Leftist thugs, and they act like it, prompting the label “The Seriously Nasty Party”.  There have been stone-throwing, vandalism, and threats of worse.  They even made it next to impossible for Labour leader Ed Miliband to talk to people in an Edinburgh mall.

These thugs will surely turn many voters off and give them concerns as to who would be in charge if the SNP gets their way.  I also suspect some are afraid to answer polls honestly for fear of reprisals.  The “No” vote may be stronger than polls indicate.

3.  I expect the undecideds to break for the Unionist “No” side.  If someone is still undecided, he is probably more likely to vote for the status quo rather than the brave and highly questionable adventure of Scottish independence.

As for my wishes, I have said that I have mixed feelings.  I am certainly praying for God’s mercy on both England and Scotland.  Both are going to need it whatever the outcome tomorrow.

1 comment:

Dominic said...

To be fair, the SNP's thugs are more nationalists than they are leftists - the party isn't known as "the tartan Tories" in some quarters for nothing, although they do have more left-liberal elements too.

There are certainly leftist thugs attached to the "yes" campaign, but if they have a party allegiance they are more commonly associated with one of the several socialist or other far-left parties that have a particular following in Glasgow and the immediately surrounding region than with the SNP.

This comment (from someone half-English half-Scottish, who has lived in both countries and wishes strongly for the union to stay intact) is intended in no way to be a defence of the demagogery unleashed by Alex Salmond and his party!