Monday, March 12, 2012

Obama is NOT Mr. Inevitable.

No, I am not going to bash Obama . . . today. What I am going to bash is the false perception out there this it is just inevitable that Obama will be re-elected.

Yes, it is easy to think that with the weak and contentious Republican presidential circular firing squad going at it and with even some conservative pundits discouraged, ala George Will.

But look at the numbers.

Even the notoriously pro-Obama ABC/Washington Post poll has “the unstoppable incumbent” trailing Romney.

Rasmussen also has Romney narrowly ahead of Obama and Santorum and Paul(!) close. But what I find more revealing is Rasmussen’s approval index which he has run since the beginning of Obama’s term.

The approval index compares those who strongly approve/disapprove of Obama’s performance among likely voters. Right now, it is -16, a serious gap, though not the widest of the term. What I find more interesting of late is that both the strongly approve and strongly disapprove numbers have been rising. Views are solidifying and becoming even more polarized.

Most relevant to Obama’s re-election prospects is that those who strongly disapprove are now above 42%. It is hard to see how he gets to 50% of the vote with 42% strongly disapproving of him.

Now the total approve/disapprove results are not so stark: 47% to 52%. But those who disapprove are clearly more solid and committed.

Another Rasmussen Poll:

Ask voters which presidential contender’s views are more like their own, and just 37% say President Obama. Most (53%) say they think more like one of the four Republican presidential hopefuls.

Numbers like these indicate it should be easier for the eventual Republican nominee to gain ground than Obama . . . and Obama is trailing at the moment.

Now, yes, I think Obama can win this election (which scares the heck out of me), but is it inevitable? Far, far from it.

In fact, a case can be made that he is in big trouble.

1 comment:

Tregonsee said...

If we didn't have the example of him being elected against all reason the first time, I would be much more comforted by these arguments.